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I don't usually make threads like these but there is one thread that really caught my attention today, and that is blackbird625's thread on "Actual Crate Chances". Now the reason why I am doing a response on this is not because to flame him or whatever, but rather correct his misconceptions about the crate system.
Misconceptions:
1) Now there are very few misconceptions but very impactful in a way. One of which is that, and I quote, "The percentages do not add up to 100%!" This technically isn't a misconception but he implies that the total probability of each crate must be 100%. Now for those of you who play Minecraft for a long time, mostly prison, factions and skyblock since those 3 have the crate system. The crate system is NOT isn't meant to be calculated mathematically. The way the system works is to actually make the probability to get a certain item to be nearly impossible so it's based on RNG. If we were to take the 100% rule in consideration, the mathematical calculations will be whack. Let us look at an example:
The Bonus Box Crate:
Now this crate is a really good example of how the 100% rule will not work in crates. Currently, if we add all the %s in the Bonus Box Crate, which is 20% + 15% + 10% + 5%, we get 50%. If we change the total probability so it's 100%, we would see tons of people getting Chunky Crate Keys because it would be 10%. It's a fixed percentage, it's not INTENDED to be mathematically calculated.
To conclude this part, if he actually PLAYED the server, he would know that a 0.85% chance to get /sellall (From his "actual chances") is rather bs. But you see quite a few people getting it. Is it because they have insanely good luck? No. It's because the 1.5% chance is more reasonable and more logical.
2) Second one is a reply he did to one of the players who commented on his thread. The person (JustAOwl), said, "There not supposed to equal 100 it's just your chances to get it, it's like not that hard to understand" Which is actually correct. However, blackbird went on with a very rather "tough guy" approach to his comment as if he was insulted and replied "You're just saying that the in-game percentages are lies. Based on what you're saying, if you have a 1.5% chance of getting /sellall from a Chunky Chest, you'd be lying to yourself because that's a 1.5 out of 176.5 chance, which is 0.0085. (That's 0.85%.)" Incorrect, note this is Minecraft, the probability CAN be fixed and not add up to 100% because the plugin doesn't necessarily auto-re-calculates the actual probability. Yes, mathematically it's a 0.0085 or 0.85% chance of getting /sellall, but that's not how the PLUGIN works. Don't mix math with minecraft plugins, those 2 have completely different ways of doing things. The thread is basically full of half-assed knowledge of MINECRAFT Servers in general, yes he nailed the math part of it but fails logic thinking.
Questions I have for him:
Regarding his reply "Your profile says that you are 14, which means that you are most likely either in 8th or 9th grade. It seems that you forgot what proportions were, which you learned in either 6th or 7th grade, but those left your brain without a trace." I kinda fail to understand what type of "proportions" you were trying to say. What are the 2 variables are you saying are supposed to be in proportion? If the answer is the total probability and the item probability is supposed to be proportionate, then dear sir you are very wrong. The items have different player values meaning the demand for it. Before actually making a thread about how the calculations in the crates are wrong, why not actually take a look at the factors to why the current probabilities are correct.
Conclusion:
Before actually engaging with the community with your half-assed knowledge, do more research on both sides of the coin and maybe you will gain more respect from it. If you intend on carrying on this argument, feel free to pm me on forums and enlighten me with your "knowledge" and how smart you are being 2 years older than me. Because you sure as hell try to act mature but you are just making a complete fool out of yourself ^_^
~ Kafuu
Misconceptions:
1) Now there are very few misconceptions but very impactful in a way. One of which is that, and I quote, "The percentages do not add up to 100%!" This technically isn't a misconception but he implies that the total probability of each crate must be 100%. Now for those of you who play Minecraft for a long time, mostly prison, factions and skyblock since those 3 have the crate system. The crate system is NOT isn't meant to be calculated mathematically. The way the system works is to actually make the probability to get a certain item to be nearly impossible so it's based on RNG. If we were to take the 100% rule in consideration, the mathematical calculations will be whack. Let us look at an example:
The Bonus Box Crate:
Now this crate is a really good example of how the 100% rule will not work in crates. Currently, if we add all the %s in the Bonus Box Crate, which is 20% + 15% + 10% + 5%, we get 50%. If we change the total probability so it's 100%, we would see tons of people getting Chunky Crate Keys because it would be 10%. It's a fixed percentage, it's not INTENDED to be mathematically calculated.
To conclude this part, if he actually PLAYED the server, he would know that a 0.85% chance to get /sellall (From his "actual chances") is rather bs. But you see quite a few people getting it. Is it because they have insanely good luck? No. It's because the 1.5% chance is more reasonable and more logical.
2) Second one is a reply he did to one of the players who commented on his thread. The person (JustAOwl), said, "There not supposed to equal 100 it's just your chances to get it, it's like not that hard to understand" Which is actually correct. However, blackbird went on with a very rather "tough guy" approach to his comment as if he was insulted and replied "You're just saying that the in-game percentages are lies. Based on what you're saying, if you have a 1.5% chance of getting /sellall from a Chunky Chest, you'd be lying to yourself because that's a 1.5 out of 176.5 chance, which is 0.0085. (That's 0.85%.)" Incorrect, note this is Minecraft, the probability CAN be fixed and not add up to 100% because the plugin doesn't necessarily auto-re-calculates the actual probability. Yes, mathematically it's a 0.0085 or 0.85% chance of getting /sellall, but that's not how the PLUGIN works. Don't mix math with minecraft plugins, those 2 have completely different ways of doing things. The thread is basically full of half-assed knowledge of MINECRAFT Servers in general, yes he nailed the math part of it but fails logic thinking.
Questions I have for him:
Regarding his reply "Your profile says that you are 14, which means that you are most likely either in 8th or 9th grade. It seems that you forgot what proportions were, which you learned in either 6th or 7th grade, but those left your brain without a trace." I kinda fail to understand what type of "proportions" you were trying to say. What are the 2 variables are you saying are supposed to be in proportion? If the answer is the total probability and the item probability is supposed to be proportionate, then dear sir you are very wrong. The items have different player values meaning the demand for it. Before actually making a thread about how the calculations in the crates are wrong, why not actually take a look at the factors to why the current probabilities are correct.
Conclusion:
Before actually engaging with the community with your half-assed knowledge, do more research on both sides of the coin and maybe you will gain more respect from it. If you intend on carrying on this argument, feel free to pm me on forums and enlighten me with your "knowledge" and how smart you are being 2 years older than me. Because you sure as hell try to act mature but you are just making a complete fool out of yourself ^_^
~ Kafuu
